A large study by researchers at Princeton University has found that women who are in their early 20s during a recession are less likely to have children, even after the economy improves. The findings were published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.
The researchers examined birth records and census data to track the reproductive histories of the 18 million women born in the United States from 1961 to 1970, up to the age of 40. They looked at the times when babies were conceived and unemployment rates at those times.
They were looking for evidence that women who did not have children during recessions made up for it later and wound up having the same number of children that they would have had if the recession had not occurred. Instead, they found that women who were 20 to 24 years old during a recession sometimes never had children.
The “Great Recession” is believed to be related to a five-year decline in the number of babies born in the United States starting in 2007. The birth rate increased slightly in 2013.
The researchers project that for women who were in their early 20s when the Great Recession started in 2008, about 151,000 will not have any children by the age of 40, if ever. That could mean 427,000 fewer children will be born in the next two decades.
The effects of that change on society would be relatively small. There are 9 million American women in the 20-24 age group, and about 4 million babies are born in this country every year.
Other studies have found that women have fewer babies in times of higher unemployment. During a recession, many couples feel that they cannot afford to add to their families.
The study’s authors believe women who are in their early 20s during a recession may be discouraged from having children after the economy improves because of other considerations, such as age or a career. Other researchers have discovered that men who take a first job during a recession often have lower earnings for the rest of their lives. That could be another contributing factor.
The researchers did not find an effect on long-term childbearing rates for women in other age groups.
